Weekly Decision Audit Research: Eagles vs. Falcons, Sept. 16, 2024

## Game: Eagles at Falcons, Monday Night Football, Sept. 16, 2024 ### Situation - Score: Eagles led 18-15 - Down/distance: 4th-and-3 from Falcons' 10-yard line - Time: ~1:39–1:42 remaining - Coach's decision: Kicked 28-yard field goal to go up 21-15 - Outcome: Atlanta drove for touchdown and won 22-21 ### Model Recommendations - **ESPN model**: Favored going for it on anything shorter than 4th-and-9 (per CBS Sports) - **NFL NextGen Stats**: Field goal dropped Philadelphia's win probability from 94% to 85% (per Inquirer and CBS) - **Ben Baldwin's NFL4th.com**: ~3.1-point win-probability gain for going for it; "strong" lean toward going (per Inquirer and CBS) - **Wharton model**: Inconclusive, wide confidence interval of [–5%, +8%] for gain from going; slight lean toward going (per Wharton analysis) ### Coach's Stated Reasoning - Sirianni: wanted to "go up six points" - CBS noted the model's logic rests on the human element: a team trailing by six must go for a touchdown, while a team down by three plays for a tie and overtime ### Context - The Inquirer called the call a sign of Sirianni's tenuous hold on the job - Preceding third-down pass attempt also drew criticism - Discrepancy in timing: CBS says 1:39 left, Inquirer says 1:42 ### Sources - https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/eagles-nick-sirianni-hot-seat-coach-bill-belichick-20240917.html - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/eagles-collapse-why-philadelphia-may-have-been-better-off-going-for-it-on-4th-down-instead-of-kicking-fg/ - https://wsb.wharton.upenn.edu/fourth-down-conversion-frequencies-are-higher-than-you-think/