NFL Fourth-Down Decisions: Late October 2026

## NFL Week 8/9 2026 Fourth-Down Decisions ### Dan Campbell, Lions vs. Packers — Oct. 25, 2026 - **Situation:** Tied 17-17, 4:53 left, Detroit's own 24, fourth-and-1 - **Coach's choice:** Went for it - **Outcome:** Jahmyr Gibbs tackled for 2-yard loss. Green Bay got ball at Detroit's 22. Detroit still won 20-17. - **Model recommendations:** - ESPN model: "solid go" — Seth Walder cited value of keeping ball late in tied game and high conversion rate on short fourth downs - Next Gen Stats: close to toss-up; tracking data showed Detroit needed about 2 yards, not 1 - Conversion rate on fourth-and-1: roughly 63-64% (per Ryan Paganetti) - **Coach's philosophy:** Campbell said he does not run detailed studies of success rates; goes by "what I believe in." Not an analytics follower, but his instinct happens to align with models on aggression. - **Assessment:** Not a counter-example. Campbell was not overriding analytics; he was following his own aggressive philosophy, and the model independently agreed. The failure to convert did not cost the game. - **Sources:** - https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/analytics-reveal-whether-dan-campbell-194239206.html - https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/dan-campbell-i-dont-do-a-big-study-on-fourth-downs-its-just-what-i-believe-in ### Packers "Worst 4th-Down Call" — Week 8/9 - 4th & Data lists Green Bay's worst 4th-down call costing 1.58 expected points, but play details not identified in search results. - Source: https://fourthndata.com/ ### Todd Bowles, Buccaneers vs. Cowboys — Oct. 8, 2026 - **Situation:** Led 24-10, 8:36 left, fourth-and-goal from Dallas's 1 - **Coach's choice:** Went for it (Sean Tucker stopped for no gain) - **Model recommendations:** - nfl4th model: 98.0% win by going vs. 96.2% by kicking (lean toward going) - ESPN model: slightly favored going - Amazon model: toss-up - One analyst (Jakob Sanderson) called it "completely inexplicable" and a poor decision despite model lean - **Outcome:** Dallas scored, went for 2 and failed, Tampa Bay won 24-16 - **Assessment:** Model favored going, coach went, it didn't work but didn't cost the game. Not a counter-example. - **Sources:** - https://www.pascalinitiative.com/insights/bucs-cowboys-fourth-down-two-point/ - https://jakobsanderson.substack.com/p/week-5-sunday-five ### Context - NFL teams went for it on ~34% of fourth downs in opponent territory in 2025, highest rate this century (TruMedia via The Athletic) - Jason Garrett and Chris Simms have argued against reflexive analytics-driven aggression - Source: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/former-cowboys-head-coach-ex-nfl-qb-rip-analytics-movement-urging-bold-4th-down-decisions/