NFL Fourth-Down Analytics: Prevalence and Impact

## Key Data Points | Season | Go-for-it Rate | Conversion Rate | Source | |--------|---------------|-----------------|--------| | 2024 | 20.0% (764/3,826) | 56.8% | Vertize Sports (nflverse) | | 2024 | 766 attempts | 57% | FOX Sports | | 2025 | 23.3% (882/3,793) | 55.4% | Vertize Sports (nflverse) | | 2024 | — | 56.18% | PFF | ## Shift by Distance - Fourth-and-1 go rate: 69.2% (2021–2025) vs 41.6% (1999–2017) - Conversion on 1–2 yards: 68.6% (2024) - 6+ yards to go: barely changed - 10+ yards: stayed under 8% ## Studies on Winning Impact 1. **Journal of Sports Analytics (2004–2016)**: Matched nearest-neighbor study found teams that went for it had average win-probability change 1.9% higher than matched kicks. Estimated benefit: ~0.4 wins per team per year. Team-level estimates: 1.5 to 6.7 total wins over 13 years. **Counterfactual model, not observed.** 2. **Ruscio et al., TCNJ (2001–2019)**: Coaches went for it 13.0% of 72,968 fourth-down plays. Correlation of GFI rate with wins: r = –.46 (more aggression = fewer wins). But agreement with random-forest model correlated with wins: r = .80. **Conclusion: indiscriminate aggression loses; selective aggression wins.** 3. **arXiv 2311.03490 (2018–2022)**: Coaches made right call 91% of time when they should kick, but only 62% when they should go. Only ~34% of fourth-down decisions are high-confidence. 4. **Journal of Sport Management (2025)**: Heavier favorites and teams with higher in-game win probability attempt more conversions. Measures expected WP change, not actual wins. ## Key Interpretive Points - The rise is real and concentrated in short yardage. - Conversion rates have risen with volume, suggesting teams are choosing their spots better (or offenses are better). - No direct evidence that 2024–2025 aggression improved actual winning. - The TCNJ study is the most cautionary: going for it more often correlated with losing; going when the model says so correlated with winning. - PFF notes teams may be overambitious: 74.5% agreement with model in 2024, lowest since 2012. ## Sources - FOX Sports: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/why-nfl-offenses-going-fourth-down-more-than-ever - Vertize Sports: https://vertizesports.com/blog/nfl-fourth-down-decisions - PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-schematic-lessons-learned-2024-nfl-season - UW–Madison: https://bracketology.engr.wisc.edu/nfl-analytics-recap-of-the-2024-regular-season/ - JSA: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa190294 - TCNJ: https://ruscio.pages.tcnj.edu/files/2021/01/Fourth-Down-Decisions.pdf - arXiv: https://arxiv.org/html/2311.03490v4 - JSM: https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2024-0254